{"id":46634,"date":"2025-05-19T01:23:20","date_gmt":"2025-05-19T01:23:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/?p=46634"},"modified":"2025-05-19T01:23:20","modified_gmt":"2025-05-19T01:23:20","slug":"history-repeats-or-a-new-crisis-a-new-phase-in-india-pakistan-tensions-over-kashmir-by-gokhan-umut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/history-repeats-or-a-new-crisis-a-new-phase-in-india-pakistan-tensions-over-kashmir-by-gokhan-umut\/","title":{"rendered":"History Repeats or a New Crisis? A New Phase in India-Pakistan Tensions over Kashmir &#8211; By G\u00f6khan Umut"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 class=\"html-h1 xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x1vvkbs x1heor9g x1qlqyl8 x1pd3egz x1a2a7pz\"><\/h1>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-46637 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Gokhan-Umut-Kashmir-e1747617144877.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"351\" \/>Ankara D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi (ADAM) &#8211; Hamam\u00f6n\u00fc <span class=\"x6zurak x18bv5gf x184q3qc xqxll94 x1s928wv xhkezso x1gmr53x x1cpjm7i x1fgarty x1943h6x x193iq5w xeuugli x13faqbe x1vvkbs x1lliihq xzsf02u xlh3980 xvmahel x1x9mg3 xo1l8bm\" dir=\"auto\"><span class=\"x6zurak x18bv5gf x193iq5w xeuugli x13faqbe x1vvkbs x1yc453h xt0psk2 xzsf02u xlh3980 xvmahel x1x9mg3 xo1l8bm\">hosted Investigative Author and Regional Specialist G\u00f6khan Umut. He read his research article for the members of the think tank. Here is the article ;<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>By G\u00f6khan Umut<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Relations between India and Pakistan\u2014long shaped by historical rivalries and persistent conflict\u2014are now teetering on the brink of a fresh crisis. On April 22, 2025, a deadly terrorist attack in the Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam, in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir, claimed the lives of 26 civilians. The attack, the deadliest since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, has reignited debate across India over long-standing issues such as the Kashmir conflict, cross-border terrorism, and nuclear brinkmanship.<\/p>\n<p>Claimed by the Resistance Front (TRF), a group that emerged in 2019 in response to India&#8217;s Kashmir policies, the attack has once again placed Pakistan-India relations at the center of global scrutiny. India swiftly blamed Pakistan, accusing it of supporting cross-border terrorism. Pakistan, in turn, denied involvement and called for an international, independent investigation.<\/p>\n<p>India&#8217;s reaction was multifaceted\u2014diplomatic, economic, and strategic. Most notably, it announced the suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, signed under World Bank auspices, and revoked visas issued to Pakistani nationals. Furthermore, India imposed a complete ban on imports from Pakistan, effectively freezing what little bilateral trade remained.<\/p>\n<p>Pakistan, while rejecting the terrorism allegations, emphasized the need for a transparent, international investigation and urged global institutions to intervene. In response to India\u2019s sanctions, Islamabad implemented symbolic countermeasures and declared its intention to suspend all bilateral agreements with India, including the 1971 Simla Agreement, which has long shaped India-Pakistan diplomacy.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"y5udNyCqfL\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/pakistan-in-the-world-july-aug-2024\/\">Pakistan in the World &#8211; July \/ Aug 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Pakistan in the World &#8211; July \/ Aug 2024&#8221; &#8212; Pakistan In the World\" src=\"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/pakistan-in-the-world-july-aug-2024\/embed\/#?secret=vFDvWCGiFy#?secret=y5udNyCqfL\" data-secret=\"y5udNyCqfL\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>Historical Echoes in a Modern Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>This latest round of hostilities bears the unmistakable imprint of history. The Kashmir dispute remains the epicenter of tensions, echoing the unresolved legacies of partition. Pakistan continues to advocate for Kashmir\u2019s right to self-determination and insists the conflict is international in nature. India, however, treats Kashmir as a purely internal issue and frames all discourse about it as a matter of national security.<\/p>\n<p>India\u2019s strategy of blaming Pakistan for every major incident in Kashmir reinforces its longstanding narrative: Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism. This pattern\u2014repeating in 2001, 2008, 2019, and now 2025\u2014illustrates the historical continuity of arguments used by both sides. However, what sets this crisis apart is the mutual suspension of two foundational agreements: the Indus Waters Treaty and the Simla Agreement.<\/p>\n<p>These developments raise the specter of renewed disputes over vital issues such as water resource sharing, the status of the Line of Control (LoC), and the internationalization of the Kashmir issue\u2014topics that had, until now, been largely settled or frozen.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Root Cause: Kashmir<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The ideological and structural tensions between India and Pakistan have persisted since the 1947 Partition. Central to this divide are identity-based narratives and the Kashmir question. Pakistan\u2019s founding ideology\u2014the Two-Nation Theory\u2014underpins its position. In the wake of the April 2025 attack, Pakistan\u2019s National Security Committee cited the incident as further validation of the Two-Nation Theory\u2019s relevance.<\/p>\n<p>For both nations, Kashmir represents more than just territory\u2014it is an existential concern. This has led to multiple wars (1947, 1965, 1971, 1999) and numerous skirmishes. Since the 2000s, the discourse has evolved to focus on terrorism and counter terrorism, with India accusing Pakistan of supporting armed insurgents in Kashmir.<\/p>\n<p>Key turning points like the 2001 Parliament attack, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, and the 2019 Pulwama bombing have hardened India\u2019s stance. Pakistan, meanwhile, maintains it merely supports Kashmiris&#8217; right to self-determination.<\/p>\n<p>India\u2019s 2019 decision to revoke Article 370 of its Constitution\u2014which had granted special autonomy to Jammu and Kashmir\u2014further inflamed tensions. This move not only altered the region\u2019s demographic dynamics but also underlined India\u2019s insistence that the issue lies solely within its sovereign purview. However, this unilateral action has fueled demands for legal reforms and reignited grievances among the region\u2019s Muslim-majority population.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"6iz7HYPiHa\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/pakistan-in-the-world-march-2025\/\">Pakistan in the World \u2013 March 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Pakistan in the World \u2013 March 2025&#8221; &#8212; Pakistan In the World\" src=\"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/pakistan-in-the-world-march-2025\/embed\/#?secret=CzdnbH6Pli#?secret=6iz7HYPiHa\" data-secret=\"6iz7HYPiHa\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>Diplomatic Bridges in Limbo: Indus Waters and Simla Agreements<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The fact that two nuclear powers are once again clashing over Kashmir raises urgent questions about regional stability. This time, the stakes are higher. India&#8217;s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, originally signed in 1960, could have far-reaching consequences.<\/p>\n<p>The treaty allocated usage rights of eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India and western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan. As over 80% of Pakistan\u2019s water supply relies on these western rivers, the treaty has been a lifeline for its agricultural economy and energy needs. India, being the upper riparian, had been constrained from using water as a strategic weapon\u2014until now.<\/p>\n<p>Pakistan has warned that India&#8217;s withdrawal could be considered a casus belli (cause for war), underlining the treaty\u2019s significance for its national security and food sovereignty.<\/p>\n<p>In response, Pakistan has announced it will suspend the Simla Agreement of 1971, which committed both countries to resolve all disputes bilaterally and peacefully. The Simla Agreement effectively prevented third-party intervention in Kashmir, favoring direct dialogue. India has historically used it to avoid internationalizing the Kashmir issue, while Pakistan has seen it as a path to maintain diplomatic engagement and avoid military escalation.<\/p>\n<p>Another vital clause in the Simla Agreement defines the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border in Kashmir. Though repeatedly violated, the LoC remains a critical buffer.Suspending the agreement may open new disputes about the legitimacy and control of this volatile frontier.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A Crisis Beyond Borders<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The India-Pakistan conflict continues to be shaped by long-standing identity-based divisions and unresolved historical grievances. The April 2025 terrorist attack has not only reignited old hostilities but introduced new risks by dismantling key diplomatic safeguards.<br \/>\nWith the Indus Waters Treaty and Simla Agreement effectively suspended, the crisis risks spilling into broader domains: water security, cross-border diplomacy, and international law. The specter of weaponized water and the disappearance of a legal framework governing the LoC make this moment particularly dangerous.<\/p>\n<p>India\u2019s emphasis on internal security and Pakistan\u2019s push for internationalization reflect deeply rooted policy approaches. This confrontation, therefore, can be read as an updated version of a recurring pattern\u2014but with higher stakes.<\/p>\n<p>Given both nations&#8217; nuclear capabilities, the ramifications of continued escalation are not just regional, but potentially global. Going forward, it is vital for international actors and diplomatic channels to intervene and de-escalate tensions. Otherwise, the collapse of foundational agreements could open the door to unpredictable and potentially catastrophic outcomes\u2014not just for India and Pakistan, but for all of South Asia.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We observe a historical continuity in the ongoing disputes between the two countries over the issue of Kashmir. The matter is primarily debated through the lens of the identity of Muslims\/Kashmiris. Following the Pahalgam Attack, the debate once again revolved around the Muslim\/Hindu divide.<\/p>\n<p>India, as it has done repeatedly in the past, accuses Pakistan of supporting terrorism. However, it fails to present concrete evidence to support this claim. Moreover, India rejected Pakistan\u2019s proposal to launch an international investigation into the Pahalgam incident.<\/p>\n<p>The status of Jammu and Kashmir changed with the abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution. At this point, we see that India (under the Modi government) has closed the doors to dialogue.<\/p>\n<p>For meaningful dialogue to resume between the two countries, both sides must take necessary steps. It has become evident that resolving the region\u2019s problems through military interventions is extremely difficult, especially as the Pakistani military has demonstrated its capacity to respond to India\u2019s attacks at a higher level.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"Lfiu9vJPsB\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/pakistan-in-the-world-may-2025\/\">Pakistan in the World \u2013 May 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Pakistan in the World \u2013 May 2025&#8221; &#8212; Pakistan In the World\" src=\"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/pakistan-in-the-world-may-2025\/embed\/#?secret=lJMq4eWueR#?secret=Lfiu9vJPsB\" data-secret=\"Lfiu9vJPsB\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Ankara D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi (ADAM) &#8211; Hamam\u00f6n\u00fc hosted Investigative Author and Regional Specialist G\u00f6khan Umut. He read his research article for the members of the think tank. Here is the article ; By G\u00f6khan Umut Relations between India and Pakistan\u2014long shaped by historical rivalries and persistent conflict\u2014are now teetering on the brink of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46637,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[83],"tags":[1991,1881,1880,388,708,79,395,2002,1553,373,7148,48,7149,5740,52],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46634"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46634"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46634\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":46642,"href":"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46634\/revisions\/46642"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/46637"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46634"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46634"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pakistanintheworld.pk\/live\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46634"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}