Armenia & India Military Cooperation and Changing Geo-Strategic Dimensions of South Caucasus -by-Dr Mehmood Ul Hassan Khan

Dr Mehmood Ul Hassan Khan, Executive Director: The Center for South Asia & International Studies (CSAIS), Islamabad, Regional Expert: Azerbaijan & South Caucasus / 02 Oct 2022

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has now entered into a “decisive phase”. The most recent speech of Russian president Putin clearly signaled a “negotiated settlement” in which Turkey may play an important role. However, interestingly by “signing a deal” for the supply of the latest military equipment from India, the “warmongerings” of Armenia and India have now reached to a “strategic level” which would change the security equation in South Caucasus. Both countries enjoy a treaty of friendship and cooperation signed in 1995.

According to the Indian news outlet Economic Times (September 29, 2022) Armenia
ordered heavy weapons from India worth an estimated $245 million. It includes missiles,
rockets and ammunition amid escalating tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan over
the Karabakh region, which was largely liberated by the armed forces of Azerbaijan from
Armenian illegal occupation in late 2020.

The Economic Times said the order also includes the first ever export of the indigenous
Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers that are also used by the Indian army, as well as
anti-tank rockets and a range of ammunition.

Furthermore, India in 2020 had also supplied four Swathi radars to Armenia during the
Karabakh war with Azerbaijan. The deal was significant because Russian and Polish
vendors were also in the race to sell radars to Armenia. However, Armenia was
defeated and a peace treaty was brokered by Russia and Türkiye.

Armenia illegally occupied Karabakh and seven adjacent regions Lachin, Kalbajar,
Aghdam, Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Qubadli, and Zangilan territories internationally recognized as
part of Azerbaijan since 1991. Moreover, Armenia has had been indulged in systematic
ethnical discrimination, racial genocides, and socio-economic marginalization of
peaceful people of Azerbaijan living in these areas for centuries. However, 44 days
Patriotic War of 2020 proved “lethal” to all the conspiracies of Armenia and all these
areas were subsequently “liberated”.

In the near past, Armenia “waged a war” against peaceful Azerbaijan and started large-scale “clashes” in the Karabakh region on Sept. 27, 2020. The Armenian army launched
attacks on civilians and Azerbaijani forces, violating several humanitarian cease-fires
agreements.

On its part, Azerbaijan’s armed forces launched a counter-offensive operation, later
dubbed “Iron Fist,” which led to the 44-day conflict ending with the liberation of
Azerbaijani lands from the occupation of the Armenian forces. The fighting ended with a
deal brokered by Russia.

Most recently, during the month of September 2022, Armenia has once again “spoiled”
the trilateral peace agreement by violating border security. Furthermore, Armenia
continued its “military misadventures” against Azerbaijan forces and civilians through
intensive mortars firing on the deployment positions of the Azerbaijani Army in Kalbajar,
Lachin, Dashkesan, and Gadabay fronts during the last few months which spoiled the
peace agreement. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan showed great restraint.

The situation remained tense at the borders. According to the latest official news, more than 70 soldiers were martyred in unprovoked attacks by Armenia. Armenia also approached
the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) against the so-called external
aggression of Azerbaijan but failed miserably. It also approached the EU and cried for
help but did not receive any pledges because of its fascist scheme of arrangements.

The Indian external affairs minister S Jaishankar had a meeting with Armenian foreign
minister Arara Mirzoyan during the 77th session of the UN General Assembly in New
York 2022. During the meeting on 24th September, Armenian minister Mirzoyan briefed
about the military situation on borders. Afterward, both countries signed a military deal.

India is now set to export missiles, rockets, and ammunition to Armenia. Among other
things, India will also export the indigenous Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers to
Armenia to aid the nation against Azerbaijan. It will be the first export of the Pinaka
rocket launchers.

For diversifying its military exports, India is following a new paradigm “Make In India”
and its government is actively assisting in securing international military orders. The
Modi government has set a target to sell defence systems worth Rs.35,000 crore
overseas by 2025.

Pinaka rocket launchers are already in service of the Indian army and will be exported
to Armenia were designed by the Armament Research and Development Establishment
(ARDE) under the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).  Pinaka
multi-barrel rocket launching system (MBRL) can fire a salvo of 12 HE rockets in 44
seconds.

The rocket launchers are mounted on Tata trucks. Each Pinaka battery has six
launchers, 12 rockets, and the DIGICORA MET radar. Each of the launchers can fire in
separate directions, as they have their own computers allowing them to function
independently. All the launchers can be fired at once, or only some of them can be fired,
as per requirement.

It seems that the “geo-strategic dimensions” of the South Caucasus are going to be changed
and “re-adjusted” very soon. The trans-regional military deal of Armenia and India has
numerous “spillover” geopolitical and geostrategic “repercussions” for the region and
beyond. The new military partnership between two “hegemonic countries” is a wake-up call for Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and even Pakistan having a trilateral security dialogue.

The Indian Pinaka missile launcher is the first-ever indigenously developed military
equipment to be sold to a foreign nation. Additionally, it is expected that Armenia-
India deal will have a significant geopolitical impact on Armenia, Azerbaijan, and India
and its neighbors as well, since it will directly involve India in the struggle against
Azerbaijan that has close ties with Türkiye and Pakistan.

Right from the beginning, the government of Pakistan took a “principled stance” and did
not “recognize” Armenia because of its “fascist” conduct and illegal occupation of
Karabakh region. Both countries have been supporting each other on the issues of
Kashmir and Karabakh on different regional as well as international forums. Moreover,
Pakistan rigorously participated in the “Three Brothers Joint Military Drill” during 2021

which further strengthened the scope of bilateral and trilateral military cooperation among
the three brothers.

The same is the case with Türkiye which has been “nurturing” Azerbaijan since its
independence through moral, political, economic, and military means. During 44 days
patriotic war, Ankara  vastly increased its military cooperation with Baku and supplied its
armed Bayraktar TB2 drones that Azerbaijan used to devastating effect against
Armenian ground forces.

Moreover, the Turkish and Azerbaijani air forces launched the “TurAz Qartalı 2022” &
“TurAz Eagle 2022” joint flight-tactical exercises. According to the Azerbaijani Defense
Ministry " the study of interaction and combat interoperability, as well as the carrying out of search-and-rescue measures, will be fulfilled during the exercises”.

Turkish defense industry representatives revealed their future plans to use joint
production of cutting-edge military equipment. Turkish Defence Industry Minister
Ismail Demir said relevant negotiations were underway with the Azerbaijani authorities
to team up for the production of aircraft. Selcuk Bayraktar, CEO of the Turkish Baykar
Technology Company, which produces Bayraktar and AKINCI combat drones, also
confirmed its interest in developing and manufacturing cutting-edge aerial devices
in Azerbaijan.

Interestingly, the Minister of Defense Industry termed the development of cooperation with
Türkiye, Israel and Pakistan essential priorities of the Military Industrial Complex of
Azerbaijan which has great geostrategic significance.

Azerbaijan's relations with Türkiye have now entered a “new phase” following
the signing of the “Shusha Declaration” in the Azerbaijani city of Shusha on June 15, 2021.
The  Shusha Declaration  addresses coordinated and joint Turkish-Azerbaijani activities
in the event of a threat or aggression by a third state or states against the
independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability of the internationally
recognized borders, or security of each countries.

Pakistan, Türkiye and Azerbaijan also signed the “Baku Declaration” which emphasized the
need to strengthen cooperation among the three countries, based on cultural and
historical ties, mutual respect and confidence. It also emphasized Türkiye, Azerbaijan
and Pakistan's roles in building peace, stability and development in their regions.
To conclude, Azerbaijan, Türkiye and Pakistan should further strengthen their “security
cooperation”. Both countries showed “solidarity” and “supported” Azerbaijan during the
44-day war against the Armenian armed forces during 2020.

Good thing is that, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, and Türkiye maintain a “robust trilateral
relationship” that is increasingly important to the security, economic, and diplomatic
interests of all three countries.

The “war theater” of the South Caucasus has now become more complex and complicated
as India elected to become more pronounced in its support of Armenia while keeping its
“ principled position ” on the Karabakh issue.

After  a new round of border clashes  between Armenia and Azerbaijan on September
13-14 2022, India’s foreign ministry, referring to Azerbaijan,  called upon  the aggressor
side to immediately cease hostilities. Now military deal between India and Armenia has
worsened the geostrategic situation in the region.

On the other hand, in August 2022, Azerbaijan’s National Defence University and
Pakistan’s National Management College discussed possible areas of cooperation in
the field of military education. Hopefully, the military, military-technical, and military-
educational spheres will be further strengthened between both countries. Baku is also interested in Pakistan’s  JF-17 fighter jets (latest version) as one of the best
options to boost its post-war air force capabilities.  

Critical analysis reveals that Türkiye and Pakistan can do more to help Azerbaijan to
further “modernize” and “train” its armed forces.  Seemingly, peaceful trilateral military
cooperation is “getting momentum” among Türkiye Pakistan and Azerbaijan. One

aspect of this trilateral cooperation is military-to-military relations and improving the
combat readiness of the Azerbaijani army and contributing to the creation of a modern
and professional army and Special Forces.

Hopefully, Azerbaijan will be benefitted in terms of modernizing its military, both in
structure as well as equipment. Certainly, Azerbaijan will likely increase its military
cooperation with these countries.

There have already been several agreements on military and defense cooperation
between Türkiye, Pakistan and Azerbaijan in recent years and according to many
creditable diplomatic sources and international media reports now they are pushing a
more serious framework.

At the current stage, this trilateral cooperation can depend on complementary measures
where Türkiye and Pakistan can contribute significantly in terms of R&D, design, and
manufacture of weapons to meet Azerbaijan's security needs. At a later stage,
Azerbaijan can be an effective partner in joint production.

In this regard, the trilateral security dialogue of Azerbaijan, Türkiye and Pakistan should also extend their cooperation in achieving a codified security system. All three countries operate noticeably different military hardware. Türkiye and Pakistan armed forces have long operated American, European and indigenous equipment while the Azerbaijani military still uses a lot of Russian equipment. 

There is an urgent need to change the entire canvas of war theater in South Caucasus
especially after the recent increasing military partnership between India and Armenia
because Türkiye’s assertive role as regional and trans-regional balancing act and
emerging Middle Power Status would be compromised in the region.

The policy maker’s especially military strategists of Pakistan should also forge a
comprehensive security policy in the region and try to further strengthen military
cooperation with Azerbaijan in the days to come. It is high time that the trilateral security partners should strengthen their cooperation in drones, tanks, anti-missile systems, ammunitions and electronic war-fare. Moreover, trilateral cooperation in the latest radar and stealth systems should be also included in the formation of military cooperation among the three countries.