Today is the 10th day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We can say that there is a very serious war between the parties. According to the latest reports from the Ukrainian side, the Ukrainian army is now in Russia:
11,000, albeit that they were closely associated for a short period thereafter (see below).
269 tanks;
41 aircraft and 40 helicopters,
105 artillery units,
19 air defense system,
3 PUA,
More than 900 armored vehicles and other military industrial complexes were destroyed.
This suggests that Russia is experiencing strong resistance in Ukraine and does not expect such a trend to continue.
At the same time, according to unofficial reports, oligarchs and businessmen close to the Kremlin have begun to stop the war in a short time. Of course, we can say that sanctions and other pressures from the West caused a serious blow to the Russian economy.
According to the statistics, Russia suffered $ 2 trillion in damage due to sanctions. Moreover, if we calculate the 10-day war and the billions of dollars spent on it, then at best we can see alarming figures for Russia.
The question may arise here: what should Russia do in this case? Should we stop the war and withdraw? What happens if they are weighed? What happens if he does not withdraw and continues the war?
Of course, the Kremlin administration is well aware that if it wants to stop the war and retreat, this would seriously damage its international and domestic reputation. As a result, states with Impact mechanisms can also gradually emerge from its orbit. Taking into account this trend, the Kremlin administration is unlikely to suddenly stop the war.
At this time, you may have to think about other options. The first thing that comes to mind here is to benefit from the mediation support of other states. There are two important options for Russia.
1. Mediation of Baku and Ankara,
2. Beijing mediation,
First of all, it can be noted that from the observations and analyzes we can conclude that official Beijing does not want to show its intention to take such a hasty step on this issue. Yes, the Chinese Foreign Minister reports that he is in constant contact with both sides sometimes, but this step is not enough to stop the war.
Thus, the second step here, i.e. the mediation mission of Baku and Ankara, is much wider. There is enough potential for this. Both official Baku and official Ankara have good relations with Moscow and Kiev. And we can say that the president of Azerbaijan Mr. Ilham Aliyev and the president of Turkey Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan are in regular contact with Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin.
In view of all this, it is almost no coincidence that Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu came to Baku yesterday from a meeting of foreign ministers of NATO member states held in Brussels, Belgium. Here, the meeting with the president of Azerbaijan Mr. Ilham Aliyev and the Foreign Minister Mr. Jeyhun Bayramov, the press conference after this meeting and the statements made in this conference show that Baku and Ankara can play a very important role in the settlement of this conflict.
I think that as a preliminary stage, a meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine can be organized at the diplomatic forum planned to be held in Antalya next week with the mediation of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Turkey. Then a meeting of the presidents of Russia and Ukraine may be held either in Baku or Ankara.
But if this happens and the war stops with the mediation of Azerbaijan and Turkey, who will win what?
Of course, the parties may put forward certain conditions here, which may reflect the interests of the mediators, namely Azerbaijan and Turkey.
On the other hand, Ukraine understood very well that the support it received from the West was not so convincing. Even Zelensky himself made a statement and openly accused the west of leaving Ukraine without support. So the West remained faithful to his tradition again.
For the West, Ukraine can also be considered as a tool for imposing sanctions against Russia. At the same time, it is more important for Russia to stop the war and to reduce sanctions against it within the framework of the imakn. Because every day Russia suffers serious losses both from moral, material and military point of view.
This trend is more likely to precipitate it. Of course, the Kremlin administration understands this well. Then what can make concessions?
The first issue that comes to mind here is Karabakh and other regional issues. Russia is well aware that each day of the war costs billions of dollars, which speeds up the economic collapse. If it continues for a long time, Russia can collapse both from a military and economic point of view, which could lead to the end of the USSR after a 30-year break in Russia.
Of course, the Kremlin’s administration is to ensure that the territories of its “peacekeepers”are temporarily under the sovereignty of Azerbaijan, the withdrawal of Armenian terrorist elements from these territories, the establishment of Azerbaijani posts on the Lachin corridor, the opening of the Zangezur corridor in a shorter time, the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan and Turkey in a it can allow you to resolve issues. In this case, the parties here may have benefited more from the situation.
Samir Humbatov is Head of the Center for International Relations and Diplomatic Studies
Samir Humbatov
Today is the 10th day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We can say that there is a very serious war between the parties. According to the latest reports from the Ukrainian side, the Ukrainian army is now in Russia:
