Tazeen Akhtar + Ameer Hamza
With the dissolution of Punjab and KPK Assemblies, end of PTI governments in two provinces and acceptance of PTI members of national assembly, again the main question is on the validity of the system and credibility of the mandate that the public expressed in July 2018 general elections and it does not exist now. The majority party is out of the system and two provinces have care taker governments that have three months time to hold elections and handover the power to the majority party. But the things are not as simple as we see them according to rules and regulations or procedures. lets see what are the major questions and what are the future prospects of politics of Pakistan.
Elections will be held or not and When?
Elections are constitutional requirement in Punjab, KPK and vacated constituencies of PTI MNAs. For provincial assemblies, three months time is fixed in constitution. As long as national assembly seats are concerned, it depends how the matter is settled in coming few days as PTI is likely to move the Supreme Court SCP against the acceptance of the resignations. Similarly PTI chairman Imran Khan rejected the nomination of Care Taker CM of Punjab while his main ally PMLQ chief Chaudhary Pervez Elahi stated to challenge the appointment in SCP. Now all eyes are on SCP for when PTI PMLQ move the SCP and what ruling comes from there. Elections in Punjab and on NA seats can be postponed beyond the fixed time period. General elections are not expected within the fixed schedule of Oct 2023. In the meanwhile all officers on key positions have been changed leaving no space for Imran Khan.He is not as vehement for elections now as he was few days ago.
Action against PTI leaders
Arrest of Fawad Chaudhary and his brother Fraz Chaudhary , FIR against Pervez Elahi’s son Monis Elahi and his uncle Ch Wajahat Hussaind (younger brother of Ch Shujat Hussain) are clear message from the governments of Punjab and Pakistan that PTI leaders will be dealt with iron hand if they resort to violence and agitation. Most of PTI stalwarts are first time new comers or elite class with no political history. They can not stand against the actions of the law enforcing agencies. Therefore PTI is not capable of pulling crowd on streets. Governments of Pakistan and Punjab are clear on cutting the PTI leaders into their original sizes.
Imran Khan will be Arrested?
Answer is, most probably NO. Government is not ready to make him hero and multiply his popularity by arresting him. Gov is looking forward to SCP and Election Commission of Pakistan for disqualification of Imran Khan after his conviction in foreign funding case. Imran himself has admitted that he used funds of Shaukat Khanum Hospital to make huge investments in real estate sector. This is another matter that is enough to disqualify and keep him from contesting election. He will not be arrested by the government but he is about to see his political end in coming days.
Who will be Next Prime Minister?
Frankly speaking, no one will be available for this thorny post if the state of the state remains the same what we are observing now and what we have always been noting that ” country is passing through critical times”.
Secondly, when we have huge problems and multi billion dollar gaps, who will allow or who will welcome the new comers? That is why, we dont see Bilawal or Maryam Nawaz as the next Premier. Only a seasoned, tested, connected, calculated person can pull the nation from this blind well of chaos. Nawaz Sharif proved him after election may 2013. Long power outages came to end, Pakistan was not going to IMF, Pakistan was paying back its liabilities, Pakistan was offering and sharing billion dollar assistance to Afghanistan, mega projects were under construction in Pakistan.
Nawaz Sharif will accept Premiership?
Yes! with his own terms and conditions. General Bajwa convinced him more than one time. Present military leadership is also mindful that the country can not survive in this situation. A strong, well composed, experienced leader is required here if we have to stand on our own feet now. For that , Nawaz will agree to the demand? He has already expressed his mind for that. 1 – Imran will be dealt by those who brought him 2- Establishment (he had mentioned names of Gen Bajwa and Gen Faiz) should remain focused on their own duties of defense of the country and not politics. Presently it is for their heirs as well.
Future of Imran Khan?
Imran has himself wasted the golden opportunity of implementation of his so called agenda or manifesto of “CHANGE”. He used to bite back all who supported him to become a statesman from just a celebrity cricketer. Many examples, Jahangir Tareen, Aleem Khan, Gen Bajwa and last but not the least the pioneer of PTI Akbar S Babar.
Imran has lost the supporters, stalwarts, friends, now many MPs and above all the image of a revolutionary and savior of the nation. His acts mostly were childish or ill mannered with no home work and preparedness.
Yes! he will not be eliminated politically or physically but he will remain just like another party in the system. He will be kept as a balancing force or lever to be again used at some proper time. But he will not be in a position to form a government in center or any province.
Two Party System Strengthened
PTI plant was installed only to balance the two party system. PPP and PMLN were ruling the country turn by turn in 90s. Both developed a sense that establishment should be out of politics. That was at the end of the last century. BB and Babu, both were under persecution by General Musharraf. It was only then, BB as more mindful than Babu, convinced him to unite against the interventions of establishment. Both signed Charter of Democracy to keep Establishment away by not going into agitations and leg pulling of each other. This CoD was the basis of engineering of another party that would be used against the alliance of two parties.
Now when Imran Khan is always at daggers drawn with other political parties and establishment has also abandoned him, the only option are the same two parties for which the establishment created and supported PTI. This factor takes us to the conclusion that Imran Khan was not the agent of CHANGE but he was actually the promoter of Two Party System and status quo in the country. Either he has done it deliberately or he has accomplished it through his follies. It does not make a difference.
Future of Establishment Interventions into Politics
They take it otherwise ! They say political stability and good governance are must for the sovereignty, integrity, security of the country. Therefore they keep close eye on everything happening in politics. They remain away but they share their mind whenever it is necessary. At the other side, when Gen Karamat just shared a proposal of formation of National Security Committee , the then PM Nawaz took resignation from the serving Army Chief in 1998. Gen Ayub our Gen Yahya in, Gen Yahya out, Gen Zia in, Gen Zia out, Gen Kakkar in, Gen Karamat out, Gen Musharraf in, when he was ousted in 2008, Gen Bajwa was in.
History speaks itself , the intervention can go to low profile for the time being but it can not be terminated fully for good. This gives rise to the opinion that PTI and Imran Khan will be sidelined only for couple of years. They can use them again when they think the country is passing through a very critical time.
