Forcing Russia to Peace, Not War in Ukraine – Mission Possible

Tazeen Akhtar

Islamabad/Pakistan: 02 June 2022 – EU member states agreed on “in principle” a partial ban on import of Russian crude oil and petroleum products on May 31, 2022. Due to the new EU’s embargo on Russian oil, Russia will be deprived of around 22 billion USD revenue a year.

European Union leaders “agreed to end their dependence on Russian gas, oil and coal as soon as possible”. The new package of sanctions imposed on Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine, cover more than two-thirds of Russia’s oil imports to EU, thus significantly limiting a major source of funding for Russia’s war machine, whereas since the start of Russian invasion of Ukraine the EU paid 56.5 Billion EUR to Russia for fossil fuels.

New sanctions also envisage the disconnection of Russia’s largest bank Sberbank from SWIFT, personal sanctions against those responsible for war crimes in Ukraine, as well as a ban on broadcasting in the EU 3 more Russian state TV channels.

According to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, new restrictions will reduce Russian oil imports to the EU for 90 percent by the end of the year.
Thus, in addition to woes on the battlefield in Ukraine, Moscow is suffering losses initiative on the energy front, which it used as a foothold to blackmail the West for many years. From now on, the situation has changed dramatically – but not in Russia’s favor.

The new EU collective decision underscored the rising significance of Ukraine in European policy: President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky joined the moot through via videoconference, as well as initiated international expert group, which developed a well-thought roadmap of sanctions.

The new EU sanctions will make Russian war in Ukraine a really costly adventure for Kremlin as well as will to curb Putin`s zeal for further designs against Europe, that is why Russia desperately tries to get rid of them.

In the weeks leading up to the EU Summit, Russia has stepped up efforts to lift the EU’s oil embargo and to prevent further tightening of sanctions. In particular, she promoted narratives about the “impossibility of isolating Russia” and the EU’s unwillingness to impose restrictions. But, as it turned out, the Kremlin was sadly mistaken in its calculations.

However, despite all eventual losses for Russian economy, caused by western sanctions, Ukraine’s economy still is suffering much more from the Russian destruction and attacks.
According to IMF calculations, in 2022 Russia’s GDP will fall by about 8.5% and by 2.3% in 2023, while under the National Bank of Ukraine`s estimates, real GDP of Ukraine could drop by at least one third in 2022.

One of Russia’s key goals in Ukraine remains destroying Ukraine’s economy, to make that country unviable “failed state”, which would not be able to resist Russia’s influence anymore.
Russia’s invasion has damaged or destroyed up to 30% of Ukraine’s infrastructure at a cost of 100 bln USD. As a result of armed aggression, deliberated destruction of infrastructure, industrial facilities and blocking Ukrainian export ports in Black Sea, a major part of economic activity in Ukraine has stalled. Moreover, every new day of the war makes the situation even worse.

Therefore, Russia should pay a high price both for its military crimes in Ukraine, as well as for the destruction it inflicted on Ukrainian economy.

For the sake of it, sanctions on Russia must be stepped up to such an extent to defund Russia’s war machine completely. In this regardб the oil, as well as any other embargo, should be considered as an stimulus of “peace enforcement” rather than the «tool of war» against Russia.

Progress in sanctions should be to such extent to eventually force Russia to seek peace not war in Ukraine.

(The writer is Editor of Urdu Newspaper in Islamabad for last two decades and publishes English Magazine “Pakistan in the World” on International Affairs – tazeen303@gmail.com)