Imran Shauket
The writer is a former Senior Advisor to the Government and a sector development specialist. He is a member of the APP Think Tank and Pakistan’s Buddhist Heritage Promotion Ambassador for Green Tourism, a company under SIFC.
The tumultuous developments in the South Asian region have brought to light numerous challenges as well as unlocked new opportunities within the region. Arguably, the countries witnessing a lion’s share of the turmoil have been its three largest countries – India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
To start, a year ago Bangladesh witnessed a revolution against an entrenched, oppressive, autocratic and India leaning regime of Shaikh Hasina. Post Hasina, a caretaker regime was brought in under the leadership of Nobel Laureate Dr. Yunus, giving Bangladesh a new lease on democracy and political realignments. Subsequent to the upheaval in Bangladesh, conflict erupted between Pakistan and India in what has been termed as a 100 hour war in May.
This short conflict had far reaching consequences on the perceptions about military equipment, military strength, media freedom, credibility of the states, and potential long term dynamics in the region.
Leaving the winners and losers aside, it is time to move forward in a manner that focuses on progress, prosperity and peace in the region. Barring that, the impact could be devastating for the region as well as the world.
The three countries hitherto spoken of are behemoths when it comes to sheer population. Their combined headcount is almost 2 billion (India 1.47 billion, Pakistan 255 million, Bangladesh 175 million), which is a quarter of the population of the world.
The amalgamated GDP (PPP) is $18 trillion. Due to high levels of poverty, the per capita income is albeit low, yet the size of the overall poor populace also harbors a burgeoning middle class. By some estimates, the middle class of the three countries is around 500 million.
The estimated purchasing power is $620 billion (India), $600 billion (Pakistan) and roughly $250 billion (Bangladesh) – cumulatively $ 1.5 trillion. These numbers highlight the massive consumer base that exists in South Asia whose spending power rivals that of major economies.
Given the changes and the strengths of the South Asian region, it would behoove us to rebuild intra-regional ties. SAARC needs to become something more than a “toothless dog”, and barring that, perhaps Pakistan needs to build partnerships outside of the SAARC framework.
In light of the latest regional developments, Pakistan would find willing partners since Pakistan has gained international recognition and respect, and perceptions about Pakistan and its capabilities have improved exponentially. Smaller nations of the region see Pakistan as an alternate “Big Brother”.
Pakistan should utilize the near term to reach out to its neighbors, build bridges and a closer community. The opportunity is ripe. For one, since the foundation of Bangladesh in 1971, Bangladeshis have a positive, or at least a receptive attitude towards Pakistan.
Pakistan needs to fast track improved diplomatic, trade and military ties with Bangladesh. Pakistan should also engage extensively with Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and the other South Asian nations.
The world as well as the region looks at Pakistan and India differently since the 100 day war. Pakistan has gained credibility as well as clout, while Modi (and I am intentionally refraining from using “India”) has lost face internationally as well as domestically. Pakistan needs to be humble and magnanimous and start reaching out to India.
Modi may have brought India’s image down, but India will rise again. Once Modi’s influence wanes, the world will once again flock to India to not only partner economically, but also to work towards reversing the damage done to India over the past many years.
India has bright leaders, and Rahul and the Congress is the tip of the spear. Pakistan should be building a foundation with them to create a long term integrated economic region within South Asia. We don’t have to love each other, we simply need to learn to eschew our differences for the economic benefit of our people.
I have heard numerous times that the economic integration is not possible because of the violent history and mistrust between the three largest South Asian nations. In response, I offer ASEAN. The tensions in SAARC are less than a centuries old (since 1947 or 1971), while the countries of ASEAN have had rivalries and animosities dating back to centuries.
China and Japan have had no love lost. Japan and Korea have had their history. Thais and Cambodians have tensions that go back to 1400s when the Siamese invaded and sacked Angkor Wat, and recent war between the two is an example of the simmering resentments. Yet despite these, they have all been mature enough to create a region with free flow of goods, services and people to the benefit of all.
In South Asia, we have more in common and even more to gain if only we would think of the larger good of the 25% of the population of the world that resides here. Pakistan has the momentum and should take the lead in Reimagining Pakistan and South Asia!
