Rumors of Presidential System & Appointment of New Army Chief – Analysis by Tazeen Akhtar

The Lt Generals who will be serving post Nov 2022 are Sahir Shamshad Mirza Commander Rawalpindi, 10 Corp, the senior most, Azhar Abbas CGS, Nauman Mehmood, President NDU Islamabad and last but definitely not the least, renown, Lt Gen Faiz Hameed, Commander Peshawer Corp, former DG ISI.

If everything goes according to the book, Lt Gen Sahir Shamshad Mirza is the senior most at the time of the new appointment. The book says that outgoing chief will send 3 names to Prime Minister who has the power to pick one name. Lt Gen Faiz does not fall in first 3 names here . If we see it in a principle that only a Corp Commander will  qualify for Chief post, Sahir Shamshad is the only name.

Here we have to keep in mind that Chairman Joint Staff Headquarters General Nadeem Raza is also retiring in Nov 2022. It means, if Gen Bajwa does not take second extension, two positions will be vacated.

Appointment of Army Chief has never been a simple seniority matter in Pakistan. Some are naming Lt Gen Asif Ghafoor even, who is at 21st position now and will be at 14th position in Nov 2022.

Few days ago, Prime Minister said that “Nov is far. We are not considering another extension for Gen Bajwa at present.” This statement indicates that another extension for Gen Bajwa is being discussed and promoted at some level. If it happens, it will be first example in the history of military. It can bring repercussions as well from within the military leadership.

Gossip is on in some circles that Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan is the “credit” of Gen Bajwa. Pakistan has a big strategically important issue in neighborhood. Therefore Gen Bajwa can be asked for another extension. At the other side, we know Lt Gen Faiz appeared in Kabul soon after the take over of Taliban. It means, he is sharing the “credit”. Actually He tried to secure the “credit” solely because it is apparent that he did not take permission from the chief to visit Kabul.

The “credit” sharing resulted into his transfer as Corp Commander Peshawer after a long tussle between Prime Minister and The Chief. Finally Lt Gen Nadeem Anjum took over the charge of ISI and Lt Gen Faiz has to leave. The new spy chief was the selection of Chief. The matter was solved but the things could not be settled, rather worsened further.

Prime Minister’s vote is still in Faiz Hameed’ favor for next Chief. It is commonly discussed in capital circles that PM wants Faiz as Chief when PTI will go into next general elections. If PM wins this time, Faiz will be the Chief and Sahir Shamshad can be Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee.

Here another side of the picture is the popularity of PTI government and Imran Khan. Unfortunately, the government is facing the wrath of the public since last couple of  years because of uncontrolled inflation, bad governance, lack of deliverance and above all the dreadful economic crisis. Pakistan had to borrow dollars from KSA and go into IMF program for balance of payments and current account deficit. The gap between income and liabilities has widened so vast that is impossible to fulfill by the government.

Financial position is so bad that IMF is asking to show the accounts of Armed Forces of Pakistan that is quite unacceptable for the government as well as the forces. This state of the state is leading towards more disaster if thoughtful decisions are not made.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister is hearing some voices against him from within his own party and parliamentarians. PTI was defeated by opposition parties in the recent local government elections in KPK, the stronghold of PTI. The problem is, the resignation or no confidence against PM will not put the things smooth. The challenges ahead are so big that hardly a candidate of Prime Minister can be found.

Rumors are on that Presidential system is coming. Assembly can be dissolved by Prime Minister. Emergency can be imposed. A Referendum can be held on “Islamic Presidential System.” The rumors have further added to already present state of chaos. Bilawal Bhutto has made it clear that Presidential system can break the country.

If PM decides what has been mentioned above , he will need full support of Military whose chief is Gen Bajwa. This scenario depicts that Prime Minister is not in a position to argue for his choice in the appointment of the Chief of his own choice or he will play coming out of the crease? Announcing the name of new chief abruptly? Leaving no option for Gen Bajwa?

In that case, Opposition parties in general and PMLN in particular will never accept Faiz as Chief. Nawaz Sharif and Maryam have publicly accused Gen Faiz as Engineer of Election 2018. For sure, having the latest system of intelligence, Gen Bajwa is definitely aware of the possibility of the nomination of chief by PM. Moreover he will never like PM to become powerful in case of emergency and so called Presidential System. Here the things get more complicated. Will Gen Bajwa reach a deal with opposition parties to stop PM from his big shot throwing the ball out of pavilion? What will be the strategy of incumbent chief in this regard to keep the PM confined or cooperative?

Recent developments against the Prime Minister, like Report of scrutiny committee of Election Commission of Foreign Funding of PTI, argument of Defense Minister with PM in Parliamentary meeting, PTI MNA Noor Alam Niaz’ speech in National Assembly against his own government etc are being seen as pressure tactics to bring PM in submissive mode.

This hide and seek between two power centers of the state has left very rare chances for the observers to foresee what is going to happen in coming days and few weeks.

Another extension of Gen Bajwa will not be welcome from within the military while Lt Gen Faiz’ history makes him objectionable in the eyes of opposition parties. His movements, not in line with the chief make him disputed among military circles. Sahir Shamshad Mirza can be appointed Chairman Joint Staff while Mohammad Aamir Corp Commander Gujranwala can qualify in the 3 names for chief. He will be 5th in seniority but Azhar Abbas and Noman Mehmood can leave space for him. These two generals are not corp commanders.

This is an analysis, composed on available information in good faith only. No one is our favorite and we are favorite of none. Military has a principle that “No one is indispensable here”. Therefore, we look forward to a smooth change of “Stick” that  will be in the best interest of country.