Tazeen Akhtar | Pakistan in the World | Islamabad
First Stand alone Visit in 8 Years – External Affairs Minister of India Dr. S. J. Shankar paid an official visit to Azerbaijan on 23 October 2026, the first standalone visit by an Indian foreign minister since Sushma Swaraj’s trip in 2018. The visit follows informal talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Ilham Aliyev on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek last month.
Earlier this month, India’s new Ambassador to Azerbaijan, Abhay Kumar, presented his credentials to President Aliyev.
Shankar himself termed the visit as charting a “pathway forward” for bilateral relations after more than a year of strain. The visit comes after relations nosedived in May 2025 when Azerbaijan openly aligned with Pakistan during India’s Operation Sindoor against Pakistan.
Indian FM forgot that his country stopped Azerbaijan’s bid to get full membership of SCO even before May 2025 when , in a compromise between Armenia Azerbaijan, and with consent of Baku, Pakistan signed agreement of establishment of diplomatic relations with Armenia.
DETAILS OF MEETINGS IN BAKU
Shankar called on President Ilham Aliyev in Baku and conveyed greetings of President Droupadi Murmu and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He said discussions covered the full range of bilateral relations, including ongoing cooperation and areas for further engagement, as well as regional and global issues.
Meeting with Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov:
An expanded meeting was held between Jeyhun Bayramov and Jaishankar. According to Azerbaijan MFA:”The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, Jeyhun Bayramov, met with India’s External Affairs Minister to discuss the full agenda of Azerbaijan-India relations, including political dialogue, trade, investment, energy, transport, tourism, education, science and cultural cooperation”
Key issues discussed:
Political dialogue, trade and investment, energy, tourism and cultural ties
Connectivity: Prospects presented by Azerbaijan’s East-West and North-South transport corridors, Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, Port of Baku, Alat Free Economic Zone
Multilateral: Cooperation within UN, SCO and CICA
South Caucasus: Bayramov briefed on Azerbaijan-Armenia normalization, confidence-building measures, reconstruction in liberated territories and landmine threat
Security: MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal confirmed terrorism, security threats and common challenges were discussed. “Both countries agreed that they must cooperate to enhance peace, prosperity and security”
Shankar said: “We have common interest in really promoting peace and progress and prosperity. And threats like terrorism, conflict, and instability are our common enemies”.
Bayramov called it “a very valuable meeting” and said relations are progressing towards higher levels.
HISTORY OF AZERBAIJAN-INDIA RELATIONS
Civilizational Roots: Ties date back to Silk Route. The 18th-century Ateshgah fire temple near Baku features wall inscriptions in Devanagari and Gurmukhi, proof of Indian merchant presence.
Diplomatic: India recognized Azerbaijan’s independence in December 1991, formal diplomatic relations established in February 1992. Indian embassy in Baku opened in 1999, Azerbaijan opened embassy in New Delhi in 2004.
India Azerbaijan Economic Cooperation
Energy: Energy remains mainstay. ONGC Videsh Ltd has invested more than $1.2 billion in stakes in Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli oil and gas fields and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. India is the third-largest buyer of Azerbaijani crude.
Trade: Trade peaked at USD 1.88 billion in 2022, declined to USD 957 million in 2024, and is around USD 600 million in 2026 as per Bayramov, though he acknowledged this is below true capacity.
People-to-People: In 2025 Azerbaijan received nearly 167,000 Indian tourists, making India one of its top source markets.
Direct flights: 14 a week Delhi-Baku, 7 a week Mumbai-Baku.
Over 1,000 Indian companies are active in Azerbaijan, 500 Indian students enrolled this year.
Strain Phase: In September 2025, Azerbaijan accused India of blocking its SCO ascension. Then in May 2025, during Operation Sindoor, Azerbaijan aligned with Pakistan, triggering boycott calls in India and sharp decline in tourism.
Azerbaijan has always supported Pakistan on Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir by India. Now when the sides are improving their relations, the time ahead will decide how far Azerbaijan sustain its support in same spirit as it has been there in the past.
WHAT AZERBAIJAN EXPECTS FROM INDIA
From Bayramov’s statements and official readouts, Baku’s expectations are pragmatic and multi-layered:
a) Investment & Trade Diversification: Azerbaijan wants to increase trade beyond USD 600 million, inviting Indian investment in Alat Free Economic Zone, Port of Baku, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, renewable energy.
b) Energy Partnership Deepening: India is a stable long-term buyer. Azerbaijan wants ONGC to enhance stake and wants Indian firms in petrochemicals and LNG.
c) Connectivity Hub Role: Baku wants India to fully utilize its strategic location — International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) — a 7,200-km multi-mode project linking India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia to Europe. This gives Azerbaijan transit revenues and geopolitical relevance.
d) Balancing Act: Azerbaijan acknowledges “different view points on different issues” earlier, referring to India’s defence supplies to Armenia. Baku expects India to be more sensitive to its security concerns regarding Armenia and Karabakh reconstruction.
e) Diplomatic Support: As host of COP29 in 2024 and WTDC-25, Azerbaijan wants India’s support in multilateral forums like NAM, CICA, SCO, UN.
5. HOW WILL THIS NEW JOURNEY AFFECT AZERBAIJAN-PAKISTAN RELATIONS?
This is the most critical question for Pakistan.
Fact Check – Azerbaijan’s Position is Structurally Pro-Pakistan:
Azerbaijan-Pakistan relations are brotherly, strategic, and rooted in mutual support on Kashmir and Karabakh. Azerbaijan openly supported Pakistan during Operation Sindoor.
The trade structure also shows Azerbaijan can easily replace India — Azerbaijani oil is highly liquid and can be redirected to Türkiye and Europe, while Indian rice imports (USD 223 million) can be replaced by Pakistani rice, especially since Baku exempted Pakistani rice from 15% duty till Dec 2027. A Pakistani company has already obtained resident status in Araz Valley Economic Zone for rice processing.
Impact will be LIMITED but requires vigilance:
1. No Strategic Shift Expected: Azerbaijan will NOT downgrade Pakistan for India. The Azerbaijan-Türkiye-Pakistan trilateral format is ideological and defence-based. India-Azerbaijan is transactional — energy, trade, INSTC. Baku has consistently shown it can compartmentalize.
2. Economic Balancing: If India-Azerbaijan trade grows, it may slightly reduce Azerbaijan’s economic dependence on Pakistan and Türkiye, but the volume (USD 600m vs Pakistan’s growing rice and defence exports) is still manageable.
3. Diplomatic Signaling: By receiving Shankar, Baku is signaling it is not in an anti-India bloc. It wants to avoid being drawn into India-Pakistan rivalry. This is similar to its balanced policy — it wants good ties with both. As is the policy of Azerbaijan for Palestine and Israel.
4. Risk for Pakistan: If India uses INSTC and energy leverage to push Azerbaijan to be neutral on Kashmir or to reduce defence cooperation with Pakistan, that would be a concern. So far, Bayramov has NOT made any concession on Kashmir — his briefing focused on bilateral issues, not on altering position on Pakistan.
Conclusion for Islamabad: The reset is an economic pragmatism by Baku, not a strategic realignment.
Pakistan should not overreact. Instead, Islamabad should:
Fast-track rice exports and defence industrial cooperation with Azerbaijan
Re-energize the Türkiye-Azerbaijan-Pakistan trilateral cooperation
Offer alternative connectivity projects to keep Azerbaijan engaged
Baku’s message is clear: It wants both — brotherhood with Pakistan and business with India. As long as Pakistan remains economically competitive and strategically reliable, the brotherly bond will endure.
Azerbaijan’s diplomacy regarding Pakistan and India will be tested by her stand on two main points in the days ahead ; 1- Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu Kashmir 2- Indian involvement in terrorism in two provinces of Pakistan while a live proof in shape of Indian Naval officer is in custody of Islamabad since 2016.
