Politics of Pakistan – What Next? Analysis by Tazeen Akhtar

Tazeen Akhtar

Pakistan is once again completing a circle of political changes and settlements as is the tradition and past of this country. Mainly it is a circle of 7 to 10 years in which heroes become zero and patriots become traitors, corrupts innocent and only options become irrelevant or persons non grata. Same is happening now and the public is at a loss as to who will rule them in the next five years and how?

Pakistan is a country where white looks black and black white. Yes means No and No is Yes here, especially in politics. Here we try to explain the original scenario and future prospects in simplest way for the information and clearance of basic concepts of our readers.

(PTI – Past, Present, Future )

I never considered PTI as a political party. It was and is mainly a pressure group only. I hosted Imran in my office many years ago for his telephonic forum with the public. Before that our newspaper very first started highlighting Imran as a political leader that he never was. PTI failed to get the attention and support of the powerful in the 12 years of its inception from 1996 to 2008. Imran was an ally of Nawaz and Zardari before the election Feb 2008.

Imran parted ways only because Nawaz Zardari decided to contest election against Imran’s wish and will to boycott the election under President Musharraf. He tells a lie when he says he has been fighting against the PMLN PPP for the last 26 years.

Establishment was not attaching any importance to PTI until Nawaz and Benazir signed Charter of Democracy CoD in 2004 that was aimed at not allowing any third party (Establishment) to intervene in politics. This was the luck of Imran. It had nothing to do with so called popularity or piety but his celebrity and their necessity only.

A group was required to pressurize the two big parties only to keep them in line with the establishment.PPP formed a government after 11 years with ministers from PMLN as well but Musharraf still in the Presidency that was not acceptable for Nawaz who convinced Zardari to oust Musharraf with impeachment. The brave general failed to face it and resigned, paving the way for Zardari to the Presidency. It was actually take off of PTI with the support of the establishment. PTI astonished the whole country just in 3 years when Imran won Lahore with Tsunami (Big Rally) at Minar e Pakistan.

(Present)

I noted during the election in July 2018 and afterwards , PTI has no manifesto or homework to get its long claims and promises accomplished. Same happened when President Alvi said, ” All those were political promises.”

I also noted that Imran should control his temperament giving space to other political players because sooner Imran will be facing the same what the two big parties had already been subjected to. But he was Imran.

Now when he stands alone from all sides including his so-called one page, the question is what is the future of PTI? and Imran ? Can he make a comeback in next elections that are very near? Here we need to see the difference. Imran’s party crossed all red lines of the state. It is a proven fact now that Imran and his second line instigated the workers to rebel against the state and attack on military installations. PMLN and PPP leadership never did this nor did their workers break into the houses of the officials or destroy the memorials of the martyrs.

(Future)

I noted in Aug 2018 that Imran should not be Prime Minister. He can lead the party and Premiership can be given to Shah Mehmood Qureshy. That was only because of the temperament of Imran Khan and also for Imran was not a politician and statesman. Now when Imran has lost his credibility before his one pagers , Shah Mehmood is expected to lead the party, a party that will be a small group of MPAs and MNAs ; like a pressure group. This will serve better for the time being to the one pagers. PTI and Imran will be there and can be used at proper time when PMLN and PPP again make some big move to make the most relevant irrelevant issues like CoD.

(PTI 2 Number)

Imran has proved a totally unpredictable and most disastrous person in the eyes of his sympathizers who bites back his own supporters and patrons. At the same time they do not have any other option to keep check on other two parties. This problem can be solved by engineering another PTI , say it forward block, PTI this group and that group whatsoever. This group will be used to keep PTI Imran in limits.

(Imran’s Claims of Sweeping Majority )

Majority and Popularity are not natural or neutral or independent factors to be proved or examined. Yes, Imran has a large number of followers not only on social media but on the ground as well but it does not mean he can win from all over the country with sweeping majority or simple majority even. This is the same as ” Lie Lie Lie until it seems to be True.”

He failed to fetch a simple majority in July 2018 with all out support of one pagers and having electibles as well. How can he win a majority vote when there is no support of sympathizers and he had the chance to prove him in which he failed in 3.5 years of his rule with full support of establishment and opposition pushed behind the bars?

(Election)

Election is a must but at the same time election does not seem to settle the situation amicably. Another political chaos , bigger than the present one, is apprehended. If Imran is not convinced by the sympathizers to accept the results. If he comes out on the roads with containers again, the country will again see another turmoil that would be the biggest in history.

Most probably, Imran will come down from the mountain. It is in his own benefit and interest, for his survival and another come back. He needs to correct his agitation strategy, sparing the state institutions and installations and officials of high ranks at sensitive positions.

(Who can form the Government)

If we see the political map putting it on the table, I do not see PMLN and PPP in the center. Both parties can win in Punjab and Sindh respectively. Balochistan and KP can have mixed set ups with PMLN, PPP, JUI, MQM, ANP etc.

In the center , a government can be formed that may carry maximum acceptability for all political stakeholders. PTI Number 2 group may also get its role and share in the center. May be Shah Mehmood Qureshy and Pervez Elahi play an important role in this regard on the advice of the one pagers in the vast interest of the country , a country that is passing through a delicate critical phase for the last 75 years.

(Role of Nawaz Sharif)

People ask why Nawaz Sharif is not returning home when his own brother is Prime Minister? Answer is Nawaz Sharif has made it clear on the powerful circles to fix the monster they had created. Only then he will return and play any role for the economy of country. In the available political lot, only Nawaz Sharif can perform the best to save the country from further economic melt down. Challenge is bigger than his skills but no other political leader seems to be maximum equal to the task.

Here Nawaz becomes the favorite for Prime Minister but it will not be acceptable to Mr. Zardari because PPP considers that it is its turn now to rule the country. This situation can be tackled with the idea of national government.

(National Reconciliation)

Imran’s one pager politics of crushing the CoD Parties has brought no fruit but the thorns only for this country and the nation. This is the lesson that the powerful should learn as early as possible for not only the country but for themselves as well. Here everyone is responsible for where we are now and everyone is trying utmost to shift the responsibility to other. That is the most dangerous situation for a state that is already at the brink of default.

As long as so called accountability is concerned, I have noted many times, especially in the initial days of PTI government that there is no accountability. Corruption is a qualification here. Accountability is just a hoodwink for the public and workers on political parties to satisfy them.

So lets stop this drama and move forward with a political culture of talking on national and community issues rather than calling names and blaming one another as thieves and dacoits. Lets do something other than politics. We have many other challenges. For that a national reconciliation can be initiated. Imran Khan for his own survival can sit with other political leaders. It is not impossible. He was ally of them until Feb 2008. So lets erase the slates of all. Lets do something for the public as well.