Zapad-2021: Aggressive Exercises Against the West – Opinion from Poland

“Zapad-2021: Aggressive Exercises Against the West” https://zbiam.pl/zapad-2021-agresywne-cwiczenia-wymierzone-w-zachod/

In the period from 10 to 16 September this year, the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus will conduct joint Zapad-2021 (West-2021) strategic maneuvers.

A distinguishing feature of these military exercises is the change of the previous name “strategic command post exercises” to “joint strategic exercises”, which emphasizes their focus primarily on the practical use of military force.

The name “joint strategic exercises” indicates the western direction of the use of such force. First of all, the exercises pose a direct military threat to Poland, Ukraine, the countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, as well as other countries belonging to NATO.

Even before the active phase of the exercise begins, there are signs that the Russian Federation is conducting a large-scale information campaign in the media across Europe to create a positive image of the allegedly defensive Zapad-2021 exercises.

At the same time, even a simple analysis allows us to draw certain conclusions about the course, intention and purpose of the military maneuvers that will be carried out by the armed forces of Russia and Belarus.

In the context of the demonstrative statements by the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu and his Belarusian counterpart Viktar Khrenin and the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus Viktor Hulewicz on the “defensive” nature of the exercises, as well as the “growing threat from NATO and the US near the Russian borders”, he becomes it becomes clear that the exercises are actually offensive in nature.

This is evidenced by, for example, the transfer of units of the best (elite) troops of the Russian Western Military District to the borders with Ukraine and Poland (1st Panzer Army, 6th and 20th general military armies, 7th and 76th assault and assault divisions, forces of the Baltic Fleet and the Polish Navy). North, 6th Air Force and Air Defense Army, created in 2019, 34th Mixed Aviation Division of the Baltic Fleet, other military formations), as well as the collection of logistic resources, ammunition, weapons and military equipment on the western borders of Belarus and the Russian Federation.

The exercise plan envisages repelling military aggression against Belarus with the transition to a large-scale offensive operation involving all types of troops.

During the exercises, it is planned to massively use aviation, electronic warfare forces, joint landing and assault groups in urban areas, firing from the modernized Iskander-M tactical missile system (with a 9M728 missile with a range of up to 500 km), testing of new and modernized weapon designs and military equipment , taking into account the combat experience of the Russian forces gained in Ukraine, Syria and African countries (in particular, Tierminator combat vehicles).

The aggressive nature and importance of the intentions of the Russian Federation are confirmed by the statement by the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu that by the end of 2021, more than 20 new unions and units will be deployed in the Western Military District. In addition, the arsenals of the district will be enriched with over 2,000 units of modern combat equipment.

Moreover, Russia is secretly gathering troops, weapons and military equipment in the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine. These activities are regularly recorded by observers of the OSCE special monitoring mission in Ukraine.

Given the involvement of significant forces in the Russian Northern Fleet, one of the tasks of the Zapad-2021 maneuvers will be to develop practical measures to effectively resolve disputed issues in the Arctic region using military force.

Zapad-2021: Russian disinformation

Contrary to the statements of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the transparency of the West-2021 exercises, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are deploying units on the western border of Russia, hidden from the public. Besides, the commander of the Western Military District, General Aleksandr Żurawlow, admitted in an interview for the newspaper Krasnaja Zwiezda, published on June 11, 2021.

July 26 this year The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced that the exercises will take place at 10 training grounds of the Western Military District, as well as in the territory of the Republic of Belarus. The ministry communicated then that 4.5 thousand people would take part in the Zapad-2021 maneuvers. soldiers and up to 650 units of military equipment. In turn, a day later, on July 27, the ministry announced that the exercises will be conducted at 12 training grounds and that 8,000 people will take part in them. soldiers and up to 1,500 units of equipment.

Soon after, on August 5 this year, the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus announced that over 12.8 thousand people would take part in the exercises. Belarusian soldiers and 50 soldiers from Kazakhstan.

Therefore, it is not known how many soldiers will take part in the Zapad-2021 exercises. But taking into account the troops of the Russian Federation gathered at the border with Ukraine, troops stationed in the occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and in the Crimea, it can be assumed that in fact up to 10 times more soldiers than the declared number will participate in the maneuvers.

The main purpose of the Russian Federation, by concealing the actual size of the exercises, is to prevent OSCE observers from participating in their full-scale exercises. It should be noted that this is in contradiction with the provisions of the 2011 OSCE Vienna declaration on building mutual trust and security between the signatories.

Russia is expanding its military and political influence

July 28 this year Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu issued an invitation to train military units and observers of the member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, using terms such as “block ideology” and “east-west confrontation”. It is an open attempt to redirect the countries belonging to the SCO to confrontation with NATO and the USA.

Russia is most likely using the term “joint strategic training” in the context of the Zapad-2021 maneuvers to increase the number of its military facilities and installations in Belarus, create new military bases, and deploy air defense, radio-electronic warfare and other systems near NATO’s eastern border.

For Belarus, active participation in the Zapad-2021 exercises will mean that the country will continue to be involved in a confrontation with the West, and will also provoke a confrontation at the borders with Ukraine and Poland. There are already signs that Belarus is transforming into a hybrid quasi-state, a tool of Russian hybrid aggression against Poland, the Baltic states and Ukraine. Anyway, Belarus has already been used in a hybrid attack using “refugees” on the border with Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

Based on information from open sources, it can be concluded that the goals of this year’s Zapad-2021 maneuvers will be:

exacerbation of relations, already tense, between Russia and Belarus and NATO,exposing the offensive capabilities of the troops of the Western Military District of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the operational subordination of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus to them,practicing the hidden dislocation of military units, while imitating full transparency,training in conducting disinformation activities (e.g. regarding the planned scope and nature of exercises),an attempt to involve the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in a confrontation with NATO and the USA,emphasizing the growing political importance of the Russian Federation in the region.

It can be concluded that Russia’s actions carry systemic threats to the security of Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states, and that they are a continuation of the strategy of intimidation and demonstrating military strength in order to put pressure on neighboring countries and those with interests in the Arctic.

For the member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the involvement of their military units in these exercises may lead to complications in relations with NATO and the US, and the loss of their support in the context of dangerous trends in the development of the military and political situation in Afghanistan and Central Asia as a whole.

For European countries, the demonstration of the military capabilities of the Russian Federation will be a “test of nerves” and the next stage of escalating tensions over the tightening of Russia’s relations with NATO, resulting from, inter alia, from the entry into force of a new package of economic sanctions imposed on Russia, the finalization of the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline or Moscow’s continued pressure on Ukraine.

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