Afghanistan is in crisis continuously after 15th Aug 2021 with no inclusiveness, consensus and system evolution to govern this highly difficult country. The world was to solve the problem but the solution is seemingly becoming another problem that can be more complicated to be solved. Afghanistan, now, is not less than a mystery for three main reasons.
1- What type of Taliban are they? They have not resorted to bloodshed. Their opponents are present in Kabul and they are having meetings with them. They have not implemented strict sharia laws so far. etc
2- What is the future of Afghanistan when Taliban could not develop a political consensus on the formation of any system or government so far? The deal with the USA and other players, facilitated by Pakistan, was meant to bring a non military solution with inclusive dialogue with all stakeholders in Afghanistan. No signs of such a thing have been seen even after weeks of taking the control of Kabul.
3- Taliban has faced USA and NATO successfully. Can the Taliban face ISIS or not? Taliban can control another Northern Alliance that is likely to emerge soon if consensus is not built as soon as possible.
Pakistan is in big fix after the fall of Kabul to Taliban. Not only because the Taliban are considered to be close to Pakistan but another reason is that now there is no Indian involvement and no pro Indian government in Afghanistan. The world is looking towards Pakistan to help Taliban fulfil the promises while Pakistanis are astonished that the attacks from across the border are still carried out. 2 Pakistani soldiers were martyred in an attack from the Afghan side on 29 Aug in the Bajaur area at the border.
Blast at Kabul airport is another big question on the control of Taliban and the future of Afghanistan. These incidents indicate that Taliban have not been left alone with Kabul and Afghanistan in their unchecked control. In fact, Taliban have been stranded in a situation where they will have to prove how they manage the country when insurgents challenge them. Taliban fought a long battle against the government of Afghanistan and allied forces. Now they will have to face the same threat with a totally different position and circumstances. Unfortunately, Taliban are not expected to prove equal to the task here because their whole skill is just fighting and not governance.
Taliban’s failure will bring more disaster in Afghanistan when there is no other option left. Taliban alone can never deliver as they did in the past. Pakistan, UAE and KSA recognized their government in the past. But now Taliban themselves are not supposed to form the government let alone the recognition by neighboring states. And they are not expected to succeed in building national inclusiveness and consensus in the near future. There is no administration, constitution, law, governing machinery in the country. This position can not be afforded for long. This situation will bring another revolution to oust the Taliban that can begin another long wave of bloodshed and destruction.
Pakistan is in trouble on the internal front as well with a large number of American and other foreigners reaching Islamabad and other cities to stay for at least one month. This period is assured by the government only and the public does not believe in that. 5 thousand Americans and 16 thousand other nationals have been issued visas by Pakistan. PIA has operated more than 300 flights from Kabul to rescue these foreigners. Government of PM Imran Khan is being criticized by the public and the opposition for that facility given to unknown foreigners.
Pakistan is working upon possible solutions to this dilemma with support from central asian countries and Iran. Russia and China are also on board in this regard. If the Taliban can not proceed with national consensus, the countries around Afghanistan are supposed to forge a solution that is acceptable for all groups of Afghanistan. If this opportunity is wasted , then no one knows how long another hope of peace will take.
Islamabad – 31 Aug 2021
